Without any rain, reservoir levels have fallen below normal, spurring fears of the state's first drought in a decade.
A drought watch has been issued in parts of 12 New Jersey counties, encompassing more than two-thirds of the population, after months of dry, warm weather that have driven the state's water supply to worryingly low levels.
Rainfall totals in parts of northern and central New Jersey have been just over 50 percent of average over the last three months, and long-term forecasts show little chance of significant rain into the first weeks of October. Streamflow and ground water levels have dipped significantly as a result and a warm September has extended the peak water usage season, allowing the state reservoir levels to dip well below average in recent weeks.
"We have been carefully tracking precipitation, stream flows, groundwater and reservoir levels since the spring and over the course of the very dry summer," DEP Commissioner Bob Martin said. "While it is not uncommon to see reduced stream flows and ground water levels by the end of the summer season, we are beginning to observe signs of stress in our water supply indicators, and this warrants closer scrutiny and public cooperation."
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The drought watch, issued by the Department of Environmental Protection Wednesday, is the first formal action taken by the state and acts as a warning to the public and local officials that mandatory water restrictions could be in the offing if conditions worsen further.
The watch includes all or parts of 12 counties, including Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, Passaic, Somerset and Union. It includes about 6.2 million state residents.
While the drought watch itself does not enact mandatory water restrictions in the affected regions, local officials often use such declarations to do so on a municipal level. The state is urging residents in these counties to be mindful of how they are using water and to follow mandatory actions taken by their communities, should they occur.
"There are two ways we can avoid mandatory water restrictions in this situation -- voluntary conservation and rain," said Dan Kennedy, the DEP's commissioner of water resources. "Obviously, we can't control whether or not it rains, but we can ask our residents to be part of our solution ... This step is being taken to avoid mandatory restrictions in the area we can control."
The watch comes two weeks after an NJ Advance Media analysis found that the DEP had been publishing erroneous drought information on their website, understating the severity of dry conditions in the state's worst affected regions. While acknowledging the error, the DEP said it had no bearing on their decision to enact a drought watch.
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A potential drought beginning at the start of fall can be deceptive, experts say. Water usage naturally ebbs as winter approaches, allowing reservoirs to naturally replenish. But dry conditions through the fall and winter can hinder that process, putting the state in a serious situation as the spring growing season approaches.
"When we come to the end of August, usually we see the peak demand stop. This year, because we've had such a warm September, it didn't," said acting State Geologist Jeffrey L. Hoffman. "We cant wait around for rains that might occur. From a planning point of view we have to assume it is not going to rain. We have to assume that this is the start of a major drought."
Stephen Stirling may be reached at sstirling@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @sstirling. Find him on Facebook.
