Hermine's threats can't fully be communicated because there's nothing in New Jersey's record books quite like it. It has the potential to do serious damage to the Jersey Shore. Watch video
The Jersey Shore is once again in trouble, and if it seems officials are having difficulty communicating why, it's with good reason.
We've never seen anything quite like Hermine.
There's Sandy, of course, but that storm barreled into the coast with reckless abandon. There's Irene or Floyd, but those zipped through New Jersey leaving a greater mess inland than on the coast. Even the hybrid-hurricane monster known as the "Perfect Storm" back in 1991 doesn't quite fit -- it occurred two months later in the year, when ocean temperatures were not nearly as warm.
Hermine stands on its own because forecasters know things could be dire, but we really don't know how bad they could get.
"This is a tough analogue to find," said David Robinson, the state climatologist at Rutgers University. "It may become tropical again, but it won't have a classic hurricane structure. If it does, what do you call it? I just can't think of (a storm) that parked itself up here like Hermine is expected to."
Here's what we know:
- Hermine has just exited the North Carolina coast as the equivalent of a strong tropical storm, with sustained winds of 70 miles per hour.
- The storm is expected to slow down and meander west, parking itself just off the New Jersey/Delaware coast, where it will likely remain until at least Tuesday and perhaps as late as Friday.
- It is expected to regain hurricane strength sometime Sunday, and maintain it for at least 36 hours as it ambles dangerously close to the Jersey Shore.
- Every county in New Jersey along the coast is under a Tropical Storm Warning until further notice.
All of this is grim news for the Garden State's storm-battered coastline.
"Sandy was almost like a knockout blow, where the storm drove all this storm surge into the coast all at once," said Sam DeAlba, a meteorologist with Hackettstown-based WeatherWorks. "This system will pretty much get stuck south of Long Island, where it can continuously push that water into the coast as long as it's there ..."
"Our forecast plots don't actually go out far enough for this."
The National Weather Service's current extended forecast for Brigantine, New Jersey. Coastal flooding has already started to occur along some parts of the coast, and this is only the beginning. Forecasters expect each successive high tide through Monday morning to get progressively worse, with winds from Hermine spinning in off the ocean, not allowing water to retreat entirely each time.
It's a creeping threat, one that experts say should be taken deadly serious and that the National Hurricane Center said could cause life-threatening storm-surge inundation up and down the New Jersey coastline.
"Whenever you get a meandering storm like this, you get this continuous threat," Robinson said. "It seems that involuntary evacuations might be a good idea if this bears out. There are parts of Long Beach Island that could end up under water for extended periods of time."
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Hermine's potential distinctiveness comes from a variety of factors, according to Brian Norcross, long-time tropical weather expert for the Weather Channel. Norcross penned an extensive analysis of Hermine's evolution on his Facebook page:
Inland threats remain uncertain. Because the storm's center is expected (right now) to remain offshore, there will be a tight gradient for heavy rain and the strongest winds.
Some parts of New Jersey, like Sussex County, may nary see a drop of rain, only encountering cloudy conditions and a stiff breeze for several days. Should Hermine trudge farther west, more of the state would be in danger of seeing potentially flooding rains and damaging winds.
"It's a situation where parts of the state may see next to nothing," Robinson said. "But that doesn't mean people should stop paying attention. If that track shifts 50 miles west, everything could change."
For residents on the coast, the threat is more acute. Voluntary evacuations are already taking place in many locations, and officials are urging people who plan to stay to prepare now.
Notice: Anyone who stays on the islands past today should prepare to possibly be there for days if worst case flooding hits/lingers.
-- Dan Skeldon (@ACPressSkeldon) September 3, 2016
There remains a chance that Hermine isn't nearly as bad as advertised. In forecasting, there always is.
Officials and forecasters are saying the best option is to prepare for the worst and hope for a better outcome. It could happen and it could also be worse, experts say.
Hermine is writing its own history and New Jersey's coastal residents look to be central characters, whenever its story comes to an end.
