Big swings in temperature should continue this weekend and into next week. Although they might seem dramatic, these types of changes are fairly common in New Jersey winters.
If you thought this winter has felt like a wild roller coaster ride with so many ups and downs on the thermometer, you're not imagining it.
Ever since early December, the start of the meteorological winter, temperatures in New Jersey have been jumping high and low like popcorn kernels popping in a kettle. Many of the temperature swings have come in quick succession, with one day in the 60s or low 70s, a few days later in the 30s.
High temperature records were shattered in many towns in mid-December, and the same thing happened on Christmas, when spring-like weather enveloped the region. January got off to a relatively warm start, but that lasted just a few days, when a cold snap turned New Jersey into an ice box for several days.
And don't forget the big Arctic blast on Valentine's Day weekend. That's when lows across most of the Garden State plunged into the single digits and, in some spots, below zero, only to be followed by highs that were 40 to 50 degrees warmer just two days later.
The erratic temperature wave will continue the next several days, although it won't be as dramatic as what we experienced last weekend, forecasters say. Most of the state was stuck in the 30s on Friday and will see the mercury climb into the 50s on Saturday and Sunday before dropping into the 40s on Monday and Tuesday.
Large storm system eyes N.J. next week
Forecasters say there's a chance of light snow Sunday night into Monday morning. After that, they'll be monitoring a storm system that's expected to move from the Gulf Coast states up into the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
The exact storm track will determine whether New Jersey gets snow, rain or a mix. For now, forecasters think it's more likely most of the state will see more rain than snow.
Annoying, but not uncommon
Although big jumps and dips in the mercury might seem unusual and could be an annoyance to humans trying to adjust to the warm and the cold, they're fairly common.
"Unusual temperature swings are part of New Jersey's winter weather picture. We see them most every winter," said New Jersey State Climatologist David Robinson, who teaches meteorology at Rutgers University.
In the atmosphere, big swings in one direction often result in big swings in the other direction, Robinson said. "This is the function of an exaggerated circulation pattern where the waviness of the polar jet stream is quite pronounced."
For example, if the jet stream shifts downward, planting its waves of air circulation further south in the United States, "you may quickly go from being within a trough (a dip in the jet stream) that permits cold air to invade New Jersey, to being under a ridge (the jet stream rising to the north of the Garden State) and thus quite mild," Robinson explained. "That was certainly the case over the past week to ten days, and overall has been the pattern since Christmas."
This setup is known as a "progressive pattern" as opposed to a stalled or semi-stationary pattern, Robinson said, "which was more the case for six weeks or so last winter from late January to early March. In that case, we were in a trough during that time while the west coast was under a ridge and experiencing record warmth."
Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality. Find NJ.com on Facebook.